Rand Simberg doesn't understand history

His explanation at Fox News totally fails to understand the benefit of understanding history. History is not mathematics. History doesn't tell us what will happen in the future, searching for these kinds of lessons is futile. History tells us what has happened in the past.

Having walked to the nearby sandwich shop, I have a pretty good idea of what will probably occur next time I walk there. I have a good understanding of the likely kinds of things that might happen. However, all kinds of things may happen that have never happened on the way to the sandwhich shop. History, or indeed any kind of experience, gives us a range of likely outcomes, unlikley outcomes, and the highly unlikely outcomes. It doesn't tell us what will happen.

It so happens that there are patterns in human and social experience, and so things are not totally and completly new all of the time. By the same token, these patterns are not governed by mathematical certainties, even complex ones.